All teams have now played 7 matches each and Delhi Capitals and Mumbai Indians are looking good and seem to have a guarantee place in the Top 4, which means that they qualify for the Playoffs. RCB and KKR follow them and it does seem as if both teams will be entering the Playoffs as well. In this blogpost, analysing the chances of any of the teams, currently occupying the bottom 4 slots in the Points Table, qualifying for the playoffs.
CALCULATING THE PERCENTAGE POSSIBILITY OF THE TEAMS QUALIFYING AS WELL BASED ON ALGORITHM WHICH IS GIVEN AT THE END!
CHENNAI SUPER KINGS
The only team having 4 points in the Points Table at this moment, with KXIP having just two and the rest 6 or above. Chennai Super Kings had a fallout this season as they could not pt everything together and line themselves up properly for a win. Their first win came in the season – opener against Mumbai Indians, which was also not the a very straight victory. And their second win came against the team in disarray, Kings XI Punjab.
They faced several issues in figuring out their Playing XI and their batting line up just wasn’t up to the mark. M.S. Dhoni did not strike well enough, and his performance was analysed in a special post as well. CSK have figured out their Playing XI pretty much but their batting line up is still failing to fire and is too dependent on the openers.
CSK have 7 matches left and even if they win all their remaining matches, which has a very low possibility, but still assuming they do win all their remaining matches, they would finish with a maximum of 18 points, and with the qualifying mark being 18 as taken after considering the performance from the other teams, CSK do qualify theoretically but practically after watching their performance and the other teams’ advantages over them –
THE CONCLUSION is that CSK have a 10% chance of qualifying for the playoffs.
KINGS XI PUNJAB
Just one win in 7 matches for them, one victory they deserved in their first match robbed and cheated off them due to an event of umpiring which was way below what the standards in IPL should be. Kings XI Punjab can just bring in a total of 16 points if they win all their remaining matches, which is below the assumed minimum qualifying cutoff.
Kings XI Punjab got one main thing wrong and that was their luck, apart from that their selection for the Playing XI went a little wrong around their matches 4,5,6 and 7 and with Chris Gayle not being at his best regarding his health at the moment, it seems like KXIP are not even going to cover those 14 more points, at any cost. and that leads us to –
THE CONCLUSION which is that KXIP have a 3% chance of qualifying for the playoffs.
SURISERS HYDERABAD AND RAJASTHAN ROYALS
Both of these teams currently have the 6 points but as because Sunrisers have a way better Net Run Rate as compared to RR, SRH sit above RR in the points table. Both of these teams are facing similar issues since the start, but slowly one has gained a slight advantage over the other in a specific field.
SRH have recovered their batting line up to a greater extent than Rajasthan Royals have whereas Rajasthan Royals have more force in their bowling after SRH lost Bhuvneshwar Kumar. Both have a fiery spin attack and when they faced each other in Match no. 26 of Dream11 PL 2020, Rajasthan Royals came out on top.
So, who have a higher chance of qualifying, since these are the only teams who are currently outside the Top 4 but have a realistic chance of still qualifying? The answer to that would be Rajasthan Royals.
The reason to that is that Rajasthan Royals, in total as a package have a better batting line up and with the addition of Ben Stokes, who will be getting into form, RR will have that slight edge over SRH, and especially in the bowling department, Rajasthan Royals have done some good work and with the matches becoming slower and spinners expected to be able to take advantage , RR will be able to make more out of the matches up next for them. And with the likes of Riyan Parag and Rahul Tewatia playing for RR, they have that backing up and have the luxury to take more risks than SRH\But will RR be able t make up that NNR if they tie for equal points, with such a big difference, and both teams having the same opponents left, it will be a tight one, wherein SRH seem to be having the edge because RR have a batting line up which is more like the which fails together and tumbling down while SRH have a little more independent performance to get a good score which still may not be competitive enough, hence –
THE CONCLUSION is that RR have a 48% chance of qualifying and SRH have a 46% chance of qualifying.
THE TOP 4 HAVE A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF QUALIFYING
The Algorithm –
- The team’s maximum attainable Points are calculated and compared to the assumed minimum qualification cutoff (which has been taken as 18)
- If the team has reaches the 18 points, then the room for error is calculated (i.e. the number of matches that the team can afford to lose)
- If there is no room for error, the team is assumed to have a 25% chance of qualifying, otherwise depending on the room for error, the percentage can go up till 75%
- The current NRR is taken into note, and the predicted NRR based on their performance is estimated.
- If they have a positive NRR, and that exceeding that of the other 3, then they have even more chances of qualifying
- And finally their overall performance and consistency is taken into consideration and final estimated probability is produced.
|INTERESTING MATCHES ARE TO BE PLAYED AND THINGS CAN BECOME VERY SURPRISING|
spielens 