THE FRIDAY SENSE: Formula 1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix 2021

The cars and drivers were back on the track, even Valtteri Bottas in a car which did not have a stuck soft tyre, on Friday in Baku, Azerbaijan. There was the use of run off areas, barriers helped some but most of all, Mercedes were not even in the fastest 5 in any of the 2 Free Practice sessions. Cars went zoom, some stayed on track, some decided they wanted to feel the barriers and some decided that nopes… the run off areas were better as the drivers wrestled to keep their cars on the track while dealing with wind, dust and the dirty street track.

This is what the Friday Sense tells us:

  • Mercedes have gotten a hard race weekend on their hands – Mercedes were not the fastest by far, although they were not far also in terms of actual timings, but what Mercedes reported as issues was again the tyre warm up issues,. Bottas mainly being the driver reporting it on radio. Now it may be a cover for their actual pace but it wouldn’t be much of a surprise if this is one issue they will need to solve by taking action that they generally don’t such as two preparatory laps before the fast lap in qualifying to have their tyres at the right temperatures.
    • It will be important for Mercedes to figure their qualifying out as although overtaking is very very possible in Baku, and is not a rare sight, with the competitiveness in the field, and the design of their car means that a bad qualifying could have the completely out of podium contention until and unless there are red flags and yellow flags and Safety Car periods due to accidents, in which they don’t get taken out. And more importantly Verstappen can extend his lead more than the comfort zone for Mercedes
  • Red Bull’s bendy wings might get them some advantage – Getting the right aerodynamic package is not easy for quite a few circuits but Baku is one of the toughest at times as it has the slow sector 2 and the very straight and fast sector 3 and sector 1 and a compromise needs to be made between high downforce and low downforce and drag to get the right setup and that is where the bendy wings or the flexible wings of RB16 that bend slightly down and back when the car drives above a specific speed might just be the right wing, especially as it is still not outlawed and this might be the last chance to use it. Red Bull were seen trying out some wing designs during practice.
    • But also, this is the week where the wings are being monitored to check if they are bending. So, is it worth using them in the race and having them outlawed by the next race? Definitely yes. This is one circuit where you can really gain a good advantage by using that kind of a wing, and a win here for Verstappen can give him a very comfortable lead that will allow him to not be at his best in at least one race and retire from one race if there are issues without that many championship concerns.
    • What Red Bull need to focus is own is understanding how to maximize the utility of that wing design in Baku, by testing an collecting data over the three free practice sessions. Not only do they need to just test it simply, they need to know its affect if any while using DRS in Baku and on the cars stability through certain corners and if there are trade offs that they still need to make which will help them further.
  • Scuderia Ferrari can take a good points haul from Baku, even though the chances of them getting a podium are not at all high. There is a less than 50% chance that they will get a podium finish, even under abnormal circumstances. But they can get some good points on the back of underperformance by the others. They may face some issues with their aerodynamic package but if they work it out a bit, they should be in the midfield in the first and the last sector and be in the fastest pack in the middle sector especially with their hopes and commitment of the drivers.
  • George Russell suggested that Williams might not face much troubles with the wind as it is not in the manner that will hamper the aerodynamics of the car. And so, although he might not get out of Q1, there is small chance he might lead the pack at the back of the field.

All in all, it will be a race weekend with several ramifications and a lot of effect on the whole season and there are a lot of possibilities which will only become clear after the whole race weekend is complete.

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